La Nina/El Nino

[Agavemonger]

I'm sitting here in San Diego reveling in the consistent rainfall that has been coming down for about twelve hours or so. Looks like the storm total might approach or even surpass an inch or more (a pretty good rainstorm, as far as amounts, for our dry-ish climate). It is even beginning to look like a normal, to above normal, rainfall year for our area, admittedly based on early December returns. Granted, it is certainly premature to predict rainfall total potential for the year, as we usually get most of our rainfall in the months of January and February, but I am keeping my fingers crossed.

It is interesting that last year (a very strong El Nino Year, when far more than normal rainfall was to be expected) turned out to be a dud for us here in San Diego. This year (a La Nina year with less than normal rainfall expectations) so far is looking pretty darn good.

I am curious about others "imput" on rainfall totals, and prognostications for this year based on your experiences over the last two winter seasons.

Are we dealing with the weirdness expected from "Global Warming", or just aberrant, fluke conditions, or is it too early to tell?

The Monger

[Viegener]

In LA we got about 1.65" over the last 24 hours... very much needed. It mostly came slowly, which means it was able to soak in. And yes, this is starting to feel like a normal rainfall year.

[Azuleja]

Last year's El Niño allowed the middle part of the state to reach average for the first time in a long time, but the snowpack didn't last. This year we're above average to date, with 3.15 inches falling yesterday alone. I'm afraid to prognosticate. I just hang my laundry on the line, hum my rain song and hope. We've had wet starts before, only to get devastating dry springs. If a high pressure ridge sets in off the Pacific Coast, any moisture coming our way diverts north or south, which could potentially be good for you guys but leaves us literally in the dust.

[Gee.S]

I've lived in AZ for nearly twenty years, and had always noticed a clear, discernible pattern. La Nina = terrific winter, warm and dry, though there may be an arctic blast or two, so PAY ATTENTION. El Nino = terrible winter, cool, overcast, wet, though less likely to produce severe cold because of all the cloud cover. Last winter was definitely an anomaly, an El Nino that produced terrific La Nina-like conditions. For my part, I don't care what sex my winter weather child is, I just like it bright and sunny.

[Stan]

We had about an inch and tenths. Seemed more to me. I think we are in a rain shadow,Santa Cruz sucks up the southerly,and from the north SF-Marin-Oakland hills do the same thing. As long at it falls big time in the Sierra's is all that really matters.

[Stan]

Using my crack internet search skills, Hayward has had 8.19 inches of rain so far. Our yearly average is 20". I cant remember when we last had that full amount. But!This is the third year in a row we have had somewhat average rainfall. This year,way above for the time..its all green here.

[Spination]

From a northern Ca perspective, right where I am, we are currently running 3 times the rainfall total compared to the same time last year. With Thurs 7AM - Fri 7AM 24 hour total of 2.3" (most of it in the first 8 hours with 2" by 4pm Thurs 12/15), we now cracked the 11" mark since the rains started earlier than usual in October. Last year by 12/19 we were only 3.7". Last season's final rain came 4/22/16 boosting the final tally to 24.13".
No way to say whether or not we continue at this pace, but one more inch and we'll already be sitting at 1/2 of last season's entire total with about 4 months left to go to match the rest.
I don't want to jinx it, but I'll predict this season we beat last season's total by the time it's all said and done.
With all the attention on drought of recent years, it's hard not to root for all the rain we can get.
As far as the question of GW's impact, I'd rather not speculate. I know everything is connected (butterfly effect, yada yada), but there are other variables involved as well, with no way to conclusively demonstrate the individual importance of each.

[Agavemonger]

It is an overcast Friday with intermittent light rain. We have just had about another inch or so over the last twenty-four hours, and another inch or more is headed our way for tonight through Christmas Eve.

If I didn't know better, I'd swear that this season is actually reflecting the El Nino conditions we were promised last year! I sure hope it keeps up!

The overnight lows are back to fall-like conditions in San Diego; The plants seem to think nothing of last weeks several nights of near-freezing temperatures, and actually look really good from the salt-leaching effects of consistent rainfall.

Although the most dangerous weeks for frost are yet to come, I'd say we are halfway through the worst nights of winter, and it is all increasingly downhill from here!

So a merry Christmas to all you plant nuts out there.

Hope you all find an Agave X 'Blue Glow' mediopicta or two in your stockings!

The Monger

[Stan]

Same to you Monger. I though the same thing- THIS is like El Nino where..on an off day,just stuck looking at the rains all day. Has a 1998 feel to it.

"Federal Experts predict this will be a dry post El Nino Year" said the SF Chronicle on April 22,2016. I like the "Experts" part.

[Agavemonger]

Rain once again today; It started around 9 a.m. and has been falling steadily for over an hour. We are predicted to get about 1/4 - 1/2 inch of precipitation from this southerly storm coming from Pacific waters off of Baja California. It looks like we have already gotten that much, and it is supposed to rain all day and sporadically into the night. A more realistic prediction might be 1/2 - 1 inch. Then tomorrow (New Years Eve) we will get hit with a frontal storm from out of the Northern Pacific; this is the one with the cold air behind it that a few of you from the bay area have been talking about. That one is supposed to be more powerful, with about an inch expected.

Both of these storms are expected to gain strength as they head across the country, giving the Plains and the East yet more of the nasty winter weather they have been experiencing of late. But at least it is having a real effect on the drought out West.

With the totals from these two storms added to the mix, December should show totals of about double the amount of normal for many areas of the west. So we can hope that this trend will continue into the normally rainier months of January and February.

Good luck, Bay area folks, with the chilly temps forecast for next week. Hopefully, some cloudy weather also forecast during this period will help to moderate your expected temperature lows, at least somewhat!

The Monger

[Agavemonger]

Bay area residents: are you getting rain from this storm?

The Monger

[Gee.S]

We seem to be in the midst of a La Raiña. I'm now starting to feel that Gaia is actively attempting to murder my plants. I have more than 100 potted Agaves, which have been sitting in wet mud for two weeks, and now another bizarre rain event is forecast for the next two days. For the first time EVER, I will be moving some of my potted plants because of rain. Ridiculous.

[Agavemonger]

Yeah, but at least you are saving money on your water bill; and think about the positive leaching effects of all that pure rainwater!

[Spination]

Bay area residents: are you getting rain from this storm?

The Monger

North Bay....nothing since 12/23, but it's been plenty cold. Well, actually this AM is was significantly warmer, a scorching 33 @ 7 am.
Supposedly showers Tues (70% chance???), but low forecast is 28F? If that is what happens, not looking forward to it. Usually, rain mean higher lows, not freeze... yikes!

[Gee.S]

Yeah, but at least you are saving money on your water bill; and think about the positive leaching effects of all that pure rainwater!

The fungus gnats are happy.

[Viegener]

It seems to be raining here about once a week, every Thurs/Fri. I'm trying to move some plants out from the rain too, but the hill they're on is slippery wet clay...

[Agavemonger]

It is a mostly sunny New Year's day, with the rain ending last night, or rather sometime in the early A.M. It looks like we got about another inch out of the latest storm. It is supposed to get colder this week, but it feels quite nice today (with the sun out and winds calm, of course!) .

The Monger

[Melt in the Sun]

Just got back from a 2-week trip and holy cow, do my aloes look better! No idea how much rain we have gotten. A few in full bloom (wickensii, 'Delta Lights', hemmingii) and a few others pushing spikes (ferox, marlothii, verdoorniae, variegata, lineata mutt). A bunch of others looked like they were going to croak after their first summer, but are looking much better now (broomii, vanbalenii, erythrophylla, microstigma, capitata, reitzii).

[Azuleja]

So far, the atmospheric river has brought us 4 inches of warm wet. Last night our ditches were running and one was flowing over the road. We're in a lull right now, with 2 more inches forecast for tonight and more after that, though it may be shifting to the north. Bay area folks okay?

[Spination]

Hanging in there... we picked up 2" in 24 hours since 7AM yesterday. A bit of a lull here now too, a good thing considering local flooding and a chance to drain some before the next expected wave of heavy rains hit. 54 degrees @ 7AM, double the 27 just 48 hours earlier!

[Gee.S]

Enjoy the rain you guys! We're mostly sunny and low 70s, the 7th consecutive day without rain, and while a couple of those days were overcast, some of my potted plants are starting to dry out. If the rain holds off, I believe we'll be high and dry by the end of the week. Fingers crossed.

[Stan]

Despite the "river" Hayland has had .75 this weekend so far. 1.10 for the month and 6.7" for the season. Things have changed since I doubt we will ever make it to 18" our historical average. I think that's based on 1940's -2000..because other then maybe 1997-1998 El Nino- the one that made the name famous and Chris Farley- we haven't had 18". I could be wrong..but I doubt it.

[Spination]

Well, we've added another .8 just in the 6 hours since 7AM. Not including that, we had as of 7AM today: 3.9 for January, and 16" season to date (first rain here was Oct 14). That is way past last season's 9.46" at this exact same point. Last year, it took until March to hit the 16" mark, and we still wound up tallying 24" by the time our last rain on 4/22 for the season. I take my own rain guage readings; 100 % vigilant, accurate @ 7AM every day, so I'm not relying on someone else's say so. Anyway, I don't think it's any big stretch on my part to predict we will beat last year's total, and the way the rain is lined up for the next few days, we should be on the doorstep of the 20" mark by Thursday.
Also, amazing how much a difference it is this year from here to where you are only an hour's drive south...
Aside from that, we are not in a particularly wet location here in Sonoma. Napa - 10 miles west usually gets more rain. Petaluma ---->Santa Rosa - somewhat more north usually gets a fair amount more than us as well. Kentfield in Marin County, about 40 miles south usually gets a whopping amount more rain than us also. Weird how relatively short distances in any direction can make a consistent and predictable difference in cumulative rain totals.

[Stan]

I was looking FORWARD to the deluge too ,spine-lol. My figures are WU/ and NOAA's were the same I believe. I wonder if the growth of the bay area has shifted rains? You drive through Hayward from Berkeley say...and you see the hills shift from Eucs and Conifers north...to Oaks and farther apart here. 18" per year..thats a lot of rain and we havent been like that since..the 90's at least.

ADDED: NOAA that has said we had .75 over the last 24 hours,NOW SAYS 3.68 over 48 hours. So,as spine says..I can only go by what the gov says. They seem to change their mind.

[Stan]

Ok..I doubled checked...the 3.68 was for "nnw hayward"..the other totals of an inch or so are OTHER hayward stations. I would guess we had a good 2.5"..not 4".